Five key takeaways from W1M’s Budget webinar

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, John Healy, delivered the 2026 Budget on Wednesday 28th October 2026 against a backdrop of turbulent geopolitics abroad and a challenging macroeconomic environment at home. While Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government has left the headline rates of income tax, national insurance and VAT unchanged, there were significant changes elsewhere, particularly for individuals with substantial savings, investments, property and business interests.

W1M brought together some of its experts for a webinar to look past the headlines and dig deeper into what the Budget means for investors and families with significant wealth.

Here are our five key take aways:

1. Calm and no storm

Jack Smith, Co-Head of Fixed Income at W1M, described the Budget measures as close to expectations, with few implications likely to move markets. Fiscal headroom, the buffer the government holds against its own borrowing rules, was reduced to £15 billion. Even so, the structural primary deficit, which is the gap between day-to-day spending and tax receipts once the economic cycle and debt interest are set aside, is still expected to fall.

Jack outlined that significant spending pressures remain, although the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) growth forecasts look low. He noted that limited growth and inflation expectations leave Bank of England pricing too hawkish, meaning markets anticipate higher rates than the economy may justify. In his view, gilts still offer value across most of the curve.

2. Review don't react

Jan Thompson, Wealth Manager at W1M, highlighted that a measured approach of reviewing rather than reacting is often the most sensible response to Budget news. The planned reduction in the Cash ISA limit was reversed, leaving the £20,000 allowance intact. That was flagged as potentially valuable when set against the increase in tax on savings income, which rises by a further four percentage points from April 2027.

However, the ability to hold cash tax free does not automatically make cash the best home for money. Jan pointed out that both Cash ISAs and Stocks and Shares ISAs deserve consideration as part of overall planning, with the right balance depending on individual goals, time horizons and attitudes to risk.

3. Sorry, it's just not happening

In the weeks before a Budget, speculation tends to focus on the taxes most likely to rise. Our experts highlighted that this year, several of the most feared measures failed to appear. There was no change to capital gains tax, which many investors had braced for. There was also no wealth tax and stamp duty was left alone as well. For many clients, the absence of these changes was the most notable feature of the day, though it does not guarantee that the topics will not return in future fiscal events.

4. Property in the firing line on three fronts

Tahir Mahmood, Head of Tax & Advanced Planning at W1M, pointed to property as the area that saw some of the biggest changes in the Budget. In his view, property owners have been caught from three different angles by the government. The first is a higher tax rate on rental income, with property income rates rising by four percentage points from April 2027.

The second is renters' rights legislation, which changes the framework within which landlords operate. The third is making tax digital, which brings more demanding record keeping and reporting requirements. Taken together, these measures alter both the cost and the administrative burden of holding rental property.

5. Transatlantic political risks

On the US, Jack Smith suggested that President Trump’s loss in the midterms would make legislation harder to pass. Significant tax and spending policies are therefore unlikely over the next couple of years, leaving some drag on US growth from the absence of fiscal stimulus. The debt ceiling returns next year, raising the usual brinkmanship and the risk of another government shutdown, which could weigh on the dollar and treasuries.

A more predictable policy environment has traditionally been healthy for stock markets in the months after a divided government emerges. The risk is that Trump, limited domestically, shifts focus to areas where he has more discretion, such as tariffs and geopolitics.

On the UK, Jack said the market is not priced for an early election. It would not be the worst time for Labour to call one, but he judges the balance of risks to be against it. Any uncertainty around the political outlook is likely to weigh on gilts, though maintained fiscal credibility would be positive for the bond market.