Investment Forum 2026

The 2026 W1M Investment Forum was held at BAFTA and discussed global financial conditions, private investment markets and the evolving defence environment globally. 

Global macroeconomic outlook

W1M's Chief Investment Officer, Bill Dinning, focused on the global macroeconomic backdrop and what it could mean for investors. While inflation has forced central banks to raise interest rates, significant further increases in the US or UK appear unlikely.

Bill also highlighted the limitations of using interest rates to address some of the pressures facing consumers. Higher borrowing costs do little to ease concerns around rising petrol and energy prices and, together, these factors continue to put pressure on household finances.

Despite this, the wider economic picture remains relatively resilient, with global growth holding up and corporate profits remaining strong by historical standards. Against this backdrop, W1M remains positive on the equities we select, while recognising that some areas of the market, particularly those associated with AI, have shown signs of exuberance.

Recent corrections in technology stocks have also demonstrated that weakness in the AI theme does not necessarily translate into weakness across the wider market. This divergence reinforces the value of diversification, particularly after the extreme moves seen in certain individual stocks.

Opportunities beyond public markets

Co-Head of Multi-Asset at W1M, Luke Hyde-Smith, spoke about opportunities in private markets. Over recent decades, the rise of passive investing has coincided with a significant decline in the number of publicly listed companies. Even in the US, the number of listed companies almost halved between 1991 and 2024, to around 4,000. The UK has experienced a similar trend, with relatively few new listings alongside an increase in companies being acquired and taken private. If this trajectory continues, the number of companies listed in the UK could fall considerably over the coming decades.

For global, active investors, this changing landscape can create opportunities to look beyond public markets. Private markets provide one way of doing this, offering access to companies that are not listed on a stock exchange. Importantly, privately held does not necessarily mean small: around 60% of US companies with revenues of $100 million are privately held. Institutional investors such as W1M can access investment opportunities within this significant part of the market.

For private equity investors, the objective is typically to "buy well" by identifying good businesses at attractive valuations, then work to improve those businesses before ultimately seeking to sell them at a higher valuation. Leverage can also play a role, but in a more normal interest-rate environment, buying well and creating genuine operational improvement have become increasingly important drivers of returns.

Private assets do, however, come with different considerations to listed investments, particularly around liquidity. As they cannot typically be bought and sold as readily as publicly traded assets, exposure needs to be considered carefully and is not something we include in our standard funds. Where appropriate, however, private assets can provide an additional source of diversification within our multi-asset portfolios, alongside equities, bonds, real assets and absolute return strategies.

The evolving defence environment

Our keynote speaker was Erik Raven from Beacon Global Strategies, who drew on his extensive experience of US defence and national security issues to discuss the changing geopolitical landscape. Erik explained that the US midterm elections were largely shaped by domestic concerns, particularly the cost of living and higher petrol prices, rather than international affairs. With the midterms concluded, political attention will increasingly begin to turn towards the 2028 presidential election.

Turning to defence, Erik highlighted a broad consensus in the US around the need for higher levels of spending, with the defence budget expected to remain above $1 trillion a year. Bipartisan support is helping to drive investment across areas including drone technology, munitions restocking, shipbuilding, space and satellites.

This increased spending could create opportunities across a range of sectors within the US equity market. At the same time, established defence companies are facing growing competition from smaller, technology-led disruptors, some of which possess specialist capabilities. This dynamic could encourage further consolidation, as larger businesses look to acquire innovative technologies and strengthen their existing capabilities.

Erik's observations also underlined how significantly the global security environment has changed over the past decade. Increased defence spending across both the US and Europe reflects this more uncertain geopolitical backdrop, while potentially contributing to greater security and stability over time. For investors, these shifts reinforce the importance of maintaining well-diversified portfolios, both across and within asset classes.